复杂性科学及其在经济领域中的资助和研究进展

统计和分析了国家自然科学基金委员会(以下简称基金委) 管理科学部自 1986 年以来对复杂性科学及其在经济领域中相关研究的资助情况，同时，对复杂性科学及其与经济科学融合所产生的复杂经济学等研究进行了梳理，系统总结和分析了国内外相关研究的进展和发展趋势，以期为该领域的研究者提供参考和启示，促进复杂系统管理的研究，进而为管理科学部的十四五学科战略规划提供参考，为国家经济治理体系的完善等提供理论储备．     

Human Error in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployment: A System Dynamics Approach

The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various applications have grown with maturing technology and improved accessibility. The deployment of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extremities in the Antarctic. A thorough analysis of risks is therefore crucial for formulating effective risk control policies and achieving a lower risk of loss. Existing risk analysis approaches focused predominantly on the technical aspects, as well as identifying static cause and effect relationships in the chain of events leading to AUV loss. Comparatively, the complex interrelationships between risk variables and other aspects of risk such as human errors have received much lesser attention. In this article, a systems-based risk analysis framework facilitated by system dynamics methodology is proposed to overcome existing shortfalls. To demonstrate usefulness of the framework, it is applied on an actual AUV program to examine the occurrence of human error during Antarctic deployment. Simulation of the resultant risk model showed an overall decline in human error incident rate with the increase in experience of the AUV team. Scenario analysis based on the example provided policy recommendations in areas of training, practice runs, recruitment policy, and setting of risk tolerance level. The proposed risk analysis framework is pragmatically useful for risk analysis of future AUV programs to ensure the sustainability of operations, facilitating both better control and monitoring of risk.     

Learning in and from projects: the learning modes and a learning capability model

Abstract

The notion of ‘project delivery’ is well embedded in and across the management and organizational sciences literature – generating a narrative that reflects and recognizes the instrumental nature of projects and programmes in strategy execution. Project management, as a distinct and well-established body of research enquiry, has increasingly sought to focus our attention on the impacts of complexity, risk and uncertainty in projects; the corollary being a desideratum to strengthen our theoretical understanding of how insight and learning from projects may influence improvements to organizational efficiency. The wider literature suggests that organizational learning remains a challenging proposition, particularly in the context of organizations operating in environments of high complexity. In this paper, we enhance the conversation on organizational learning through a series of case studies, generating evidence of thirteen ‘learning modes’. The paper proposes that mature organizations tend to exhibit a greater number of learning modes and that there is a tendency to capture and socialize knowledge with a greater emphasis on the context of the learning situation rather than the learning artefact in isolation. The empirical evidence gathered in this paper forms the basis of a capability model, characterized by the thirteen modes of learning. The model intimates that learning occurs, and is more effective, when knowledge and information are enacted in practice through the learning modes which form a nucleus of the organizational learning capability. The research concludes with a 'call to action' that emphasizes the strategic importance of learning practices and routines in project oriented-organizations.     

汇率货币模型的非线性协整关系检验——基于深度GRU神经网络

本文采用深度门控循环单元（GRU）神经网络探讨三种汇率货币模型（弹性价格、前瞻性和实际利率差模型）的非线性协整关系。GRU技术在深度学习中具有智能记忆、自主学习和强逼近能力等优点。为此，本文运用该技术对6组典型浮动汇率制国别数据进行了非线性Johansen协整检验。结果表明，汇率与宏观经济基本面之间存在非线性协整关系，从而说明了货币模型在非线性条件下的有效性，以及先进的深度学习工具在检验经济理论中的优势。     

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA)

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three‐step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk‐exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk‐benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice.     

目标导向层次分析方法

对含有抽象属性的多属性层次结构而言，层次分析法即AHP（包括DIS-AHP、ABS-AHP、IDE-AHP和SUP-AHP四种具体方法）会因比率比较基准缺失、权重内涵模糊不清或方案评价不保序而缺乏科学理性。为发展AHP，基于摆幅置权（SW）判断模式和多属性决策属性价值公度方法，首先给出了能为层次结构抽象属性上的SW判断提供支持的规约性多属性决策属性价值公度方法，然后由此并结合多属性价值理论给出了能够克服现有层次分析法内在缺陷的目标导向层次分析方法即ToAHP。相对于AHP，ToAHP在判断模式与权重内涵、方法建构的理论基础和相关假设检验、方案评价保序与其内在数理依据上具有明显的相对科学合理性。应用分析表明：在输入信息可比的条件下，ToAHP明显优于AHP的四种分析方法之中最具可信性的SUP-AHP方法。     

Institutional antecedents of subsidiary external embeddedness: Coping with regulatory competitive constraints

We investigate institutional antecedents to subsidiary external embeddedness and relate regulation constraining competition in local service sectors to subsidiary embeddedness with local partners in complementary sectors. Combining research on business networks with arguments derived from transaction cost economics, we argue that subsidiary external embeddedness depends on the extent of transaction costs originating from small numbers bargaining, which regulatory competitive constraints in local service sectors are a source of. Based on this logic, we suggest that low and high levels of regulatory competitive constraints are associated with greater subsidiary external embeddedness. We also suggest that this U-shaped relationship is more pronounced for subsidiaries that are centers of excellence within the multinational enterprise because these subsidiaries heavily depend on the local context as a source of their competitive advantage over their sister subsidiaries.     

The effects of leadership change on team escalation of commitment

Although teams benefit from developing plans and processes that boost efficiency and reduce uncertainty, they may become too attached to these plans and escalate commitment when an alternative response is needed. Drawing on theories of team leadership, team processes and escalation of commitment, we propose that a change in leadership can help the team reduce commitment to outdated plans and avoid further escalation over time. Across two studies, we tested and found support for our hypotheses and provide evidence that leadership change can break the cycle of escalation by enhancing leader-driven team reflection and refocusing the team on error correction instead of additional investment. We discuss how the results of these studies extend existing theory and add to our understanding of the important role leaders play in enhancing team adaptation and preventing team escalation.